Script potential at Domestic box office: $143 – 215MM
The Ideal Plot structure enhances revenues by 4X!
Don’t get fooled by Moana 2 breaking records in the opening week at the box office. The movie has had a tepid response in the international markets. Moreover, since the Thanksgiving weekend there is a massive drop in collections… unprecedented for a smashing weekend opening. Moana 2’s plot structure drawn from three mythological tales indicates shallow quests and several gaps in the story.
1.The invisible plot structure of Moana 2
1A. The script of Moana 2 borrows 92% of its events from 3 mythological tales
Moana's quest is driven by the desire to find an elusive person/object and mirrors the tale of Jason from Greek mythology. Jason and the Argonauts for their journey to retrieve the Golden Fleece. Similarly, Moana & crew travel to find the lost island of Motefetu.
Maui’s quest is driven by the desire for honour and mirrors the tale of Hanuman from Hindu mythology. Both Hanuman & Maui demonstrate loyalty, showing a willingness to sacrifice themselves.
Nalo’s quest is driven by the desire to dominate others and borrows events from the tale of Ravan from Hindu mythology. Both Ravan and Nalo take whatever they want without any concern for the consequences.
Matangi & Kakamoras have underdeveloped quests of Idealism & Honour. None of the other characters have any quest.
Detailed mirroring of each character’s primary quest to their respective mythological tales is in section “3A. Quests of characters and their mythological counterparts”
1B. Moana 2’s unique plot structure extracted from our reservoir of infinite stories
Human beings are driven by 16 fundamental desires. Every desire, whether encountering fulfilment or unfulfillment, gives rise to two distinct quests. Thus, a spectrum of 32 unique quests mirrors every human desire.
We have discovered mythological tales from across civilizations that uniquely portray each one of these 32 human quests. While each mythological tale stands as a distinct quest, the true magic unfolds when these tales are combined. This synergy is evident in the epics of Odyssey and Ramayan, where various universal quests seamlessly intertwine.
Combining any five tales from the 32, generates a staggering 24 million unique story plots. Take it a step further, by combining six tales the possibilities explode to an astounding 600 million!
The plot of Moana 2 is a subset of Mythosis plot structure #19,183 that interweaves the tales of Ravan, Jason & Hanuman.
2. The potential of Moana 2’s plot structure: $143 – 215MM
2A. Moana 2’s plot structure evaluation
The interweaving of 32 mythological tales creates a billion stories. We use these 32 tales to extract the plot structure of any story across genres. The study of plot structures across Blockbuster, Hit & Flop movies led to the discovery of storytelling principles. We developed Mythosis Code to see how well a story follows these principles.
All Blockbusters have at least 3 universal quests. Moana 2 uses 3 universal quests of Expedition, Power & Honour.
In Blockbusters, each universal quest is mirrored by ONLY ONE character. Moana mirrors the universal quest of Expedition. Maui mirrors the quests of Honour. Nalo mirrors the universal quest of Power.
Every Blockbuster character borrows at least 35% of the universal quest. Moana borrows 27% events from the quest of Expedition. Maui borrows 10% from the quest of Honour. Nalo borrows 16% from the quest of Power.
Blockbusters interweave different quests to create a tight plot structure. Interweaving occurs when events of 2 quests occur simultaneously in the story. Blockbusters have a quest interweaving threshold of 0.5. Moana 2’s quest interweaving score of 0.67 is above par. An example of interweaving the quests of Moana & Nalo:
2B. Estimating Moana 2’s revenue potential from its plot structure
Even though Moana 2 uses 3 mythological tales, the characters borrow sparingly from these tales. As a result, all the character quests are shallow which in turn also creates gaps in the story.
We have created an algorithm by assigning weights to the principles of The Mythosis Code. This algorithm has an accuracy of 91% in predicting the lifetime revenue of a movie from its script. The algorithm calculates the potency of a story’s plot structure and estimates how many people will like the story. The number of people and current ticket prices gives us the box-office revenue.
Blockbuster plot structures have a score of at least 0.64 and appeal to 20% of the audiences. Moana 2 has a script potential score is 0.13 and the movie will appeal to 3.66%-5.50% of the population.
Our estimate of the movie's revenues from its script is $143–215MM in the domestic market. Disney's marketing and distribution muscle will push it to ~$360–390MM. An intervention that is detrimental to creativity & storytelling.
3. The ideal plot structure of Moana 2
We have identified 32 mythological tales, the superset of all tales across cultures. The quests of these tales have also recurred over time periods. They represent human behaviours that are deeply embedded in our shared memories. Each tale is the richest expression of the pursuit of a human desire. The tales have a unique pattern of events spread over 5 major arcs.
Mapping a character’s quest to the relevant mythological tale reveals the gaps in their quest, if any. Plugging these gaps with the missing events deepens the character quest. The missing events also provide an opportunity for interweaving the various quests. These events strengthen the story and unlock its hidden potential.
3A. Quest of characters in Moana 2 and their mythological counterparts
Quest 1: Moana mirrors the universal quest for Expedition
Moana’s desire for Expedition stems from the need to find and elusive person/object. The tale of Jason from Greek mythology is the universal quest for Expedition.
Quest 2: Maui mirrors the universal quest for Honour
Maui’s desire for Honour stems from the need to be loyal to one’s clan/order. The tale of Hanuman from Hindu mythology is the universal quest for Honour.
Quest 3: Nalo mirrors the universal quest for Power
Nalo’s desire for Power stems from the need to dominate others. The tale of Ravan from Hindu mythology is the universal quest for Power.
3B. Gaps in the current plot structure
The plot structure of Moana 2 is weakened by shallow quests. The quests of all three characters doesn’t mirror enough events from their respective mythological tales.
3C. Unlocking the hidden potential
Moana 2’s plot is a subset of Mythosis plot structure #19,183 that interweaves the mythological tales of Ravan, Jason & Hanuman. This plot structure assists in incorporating additional events that enables:
1. Deepening the quests of Moana, Maui & Nalo
2. Removing gaps in the plot structure
Mythosis plot structure #19,183 transforms Moana 2 into a cohesive story and enhances current revenues by 4X!
Tags:Character development, Long range prediction, Moana 2, Mythology, Plot Structure, storytelling, Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
